By a startling coincidence, a seventeen-year-old conflict in the ethnic jigsaw of the Caucasus erupted in full fury on Friday, just hours before the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games in Beijing. What started as an attempt by Georgian forces to assault or contain (opinions differ over this matter) pro-Russian separatists in the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia escalated on Saturday into a fully-fledged war involving the Russian Federation - which claimed to act as the defender of all South Ossetian citizens with Russian nationality and as a guarantor of peace in the region. Indeed, as the International Herald Tribune remarked yesterday, the fighting around the South Ossetian capital of Thskinvali between Georgian forces on one side and Russian, South Ossetian and Abkhazian troops on the other constitutes "the heaviest clashes between Russia and a foreign military since the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979."
If the reports about Russian air strikes against the Tbilisi military airbase and trans-Caucasian pipeline are correct, then these actions may lead to further escalation of the conflict; this is especially true now that Russian forces continue to stream into South Ossetia by the thousands, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet has landed ground forces on and moved warships to the coast of Abkhazia, another separatist region which has the status of an autonomous republic within Georgia. The latter disposition of forces gives the conflict an entirely different edge, as it suggests that Russia is preparing to take control of not only South Ossetia, but other separatist regions in Georgia as well.
The first indication of trouble to come is the fact that on Saturday, UN peacekeeping forces (United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia, UNOMIG) in Abkhazia retreated at the request of the Russophile Abkhaz government, a move which makes the arrival of substantial Russian naval forces dangerous. News reports indicate that the few hundred Russian soldiers already in Abkhazia (ostensibly as peacekeeping 'railway troops' under the mandate of the Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS) have moved against Georgian positions in the Kodori Gorge, a small piece of Abkhaz territory conquered by Georgia in 2006; these Russian forces are allegedly supported by air strikes and pro-Russian Abkhaz insurgents.
And then there is Vladimir Putin, who on Russian State Television said that "there is almost no way we can imagine a return to the status quo", implying that Russia would not withdraw from the invaded territories within the near future. He also declared all Georgian claims of sovereignty over South Ossetia - and indirectly, Abkhazia - to be invalid, which sparked fears about a possible Russian annexation of the satellite states it helped to establish on Georgian territory after violent seccesionist conflicts in 1991-'93. Most alarming of all, the BBC reported he said it was "unlikely that South Ossetia would ever reintegrate with Georgia".
If Russia is really trying to use the Georgian offensive against South Ossetian insurgents as a a pretext to establish full control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and integrate them into the Russian Federation, then the run-up to this invasion was very cleverly conceived and executed. Russia has CIS-mandated 'peacekeepers' in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, has provided military and financial aid to these regions to make them militarily and politically self-sustaining, and has engaged in a series of provocations with Tbilisi over the past few months, which included the stray firing of a missile onto Georgian territory, the lifting of CIS sanctions on the renegade Abkhaz regime and the violation of Georgian airspace on numerous occasions. Vice versa, the Georgians have responded with or initiated similar actions. It is clear that the Russians, by inciting a renewed insurgency by the Abkhaz separatists - who committed atrocities in the early nineties that practically constitute genocide - and even providing direct military support to the militants, have unnecessarily escalated the war and are aiming for far larger objectives than the protection of Russian citizens. One cannot help but suspect that the Kremlin harbours ulterior motives...
Moreover, Russia has attacked targets outside South Ossetia from the air, including Georgian cities outside the conflict zone, such as the port city of Poti on the Black Sea, the town of Gori, 50 miles from Tbilisi, the military airbase of Tbilisi and allegedly, parts of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline - which transports oil from Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea to Turkey on the Mediterranean. In addition, refugees and journalists report Russian artillery firing from South Ossetia into Georgian territory. Dimitri Medvedev argued that Russia was intervening in South Ossetia on an entirely 'lawful' basis, namely that Russian citizens were being attacked and that their defence fell under the mandate granted to Russian peacekeepers by the CIS - and thus, as Medvedev bizarrely claimed, granted by the "international community" as a whole. Even if this reason was legal under international law and fell within the CIS mandate, the truth remains that Moscow has now forfeited its right to act as the sole protector of peace in South Ossetia, by attacking numerous Georgian civilian and military targets outside its mandated zone. It thus can no longer claim to be occupying the legal - or even moral - high ground in this conflict, for the abovementioned attacks are completely unlawful, even if one applies Medvedev's own war rethoric to them.
Also, Georgia has not attacked targets on sovereign Russian soil, so the Russian pretexts for attacking any target whatsoever in what is undisputed Georgian territory hold no water. Not even the unconfirmed Russian claims of Georgian "acts of aggression" against Russian peacekeepers and Ossetian civilians will justify this unnecessary escalation and provocative act from the Russian side. It is Moscow that has really taken this war to its opponent.
The first priority now is a ceasefire in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and an immediate halt to the Russian reinforcement of troops in both regions. The international community cannot allow Russia to annex states under false pretentions like the Great Powers did a hundred years ago in their 'territory trade' in the Balkans and the Caucasus. If Russia continues to execute attacks on Georgian territory (by which I mean those parts of Georgian territory that are being disputed by any state actor) and pursues its ground offensive into Georgia proper, it is legally, politically, ethically and diplomatically the aggressor in this war, and in that case the international community will have to use every means necessary to put an end to this conflict.
More commentary on the South Ossetian War will follow in the next few days.
If the reports about Russian air strikes against the Tbilisi military airbase and trans-Caucasian pipeline are correct, then these actions may lead to further escalation of the conflict; this is especially true now that Russian forces continue to stream into South Ossetia by the thousands, and the Russian Black Sea Fleet has landed ground forces on and moved warships to the coast of Abkhazia, another separatist region which has the status of an autonomous republic within Georgia. The latter disposition of forces gives the conflict an entirely different edge, as it suggests that Russia is preparing to take control of not only South Ossetia, but other separatist regions in Georgia as well.
The first indication of trouble to come is the fact that on Saturday, UN peacekeeping forces (United Nations Observer Mission in Georgia, UNOMIG) in Abkhazia retreated at the request of the Russophile Abkhaz government, a move which makes the arrival of substantial Russian naval forces dangerous. News reports indicate that the few hundred Russian soldiers already in Abkhazia (ostensibly as peacekeeping 'railway troops' under the mandate of the Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS) have moved against Georgian positions in the Kodori Gorge, a small piece of Abkhaz territory conquered by Georgia in 2006; these Russian forces are allegedly supported by air strikes and pro-Russian Abkhaz insurgents.
And then there is Vladimir Putin, who on Russian State Television said that "there is almost no way we can imagine a return to the status quo", implying that Russia would not withdraw from the invaded territories within the near future. He also declared all Georgian claims of sovereignty over South Ossetia - and indirectly, Abkhazia - to be invalid, which sparked fears about a possible Russian annexation of the satellite states it helped to establish on Georgian territory after violent seccesionist conflicts in 1991-'93. Most alarming of all, the BBC reported he said it was "unlikely that South Ossetia would ever reintegrate with Georgia".
If Russia is really trying to use the Georgian offensive against South Ossetian insurgents as a a pretext to establish full control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and integrate them into the Russian Federation, then the run-up to this invasion was very cleverly conceived and executed. Russia has CIS-mandated 'peacekeepers' in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, has provided military and financial aid to these regions to make them militarily and politically self-sustaining, and has engaged in a series of provocations with Tbilisi over the past few months, which included the stray firing of a missile onto Georgian territory, the lifting of CIS sanctions on the renegade Abkhaz regime and the violation of Georgian airspace on numerous occasions. Vice versa, the Georgians have responded with or initiated similar actions. It is clear that the Russians, by inciting a renewed insurgency by the Abkhaz separatists - who committed atrocities in the early nineties that practically constitute genocide - and even providing direct military support to the militants, have unnecessarily escalated the war and are aiming for far larger objectives than the protection of Russian citizens. One cannot help but suspect that the Kremlin harbours ulterior motives...
Moreover, Russia has attacked targets outside South Ossetia from the air, including Georgian cities outside the conflict zone, such as the port city of Poti on the Black Sea, the town of Gori, 50 miles from Tbilisi, the military airbase of Tbilisi and allegedly, parts of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline - which transports oil from Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea to Turkey on the Mediterranean. In addition, refugees and journalists report Russian artillery firing from South Ossetia into Georgian territory. Dimitri Medvedev argued that Russia was intervening in South Ossetia on an entirely 'lawful' basis, namely that Russian citizens were being attacked and that their defence fell under the mandate granted to Russian peacekeepers by the CIS - and thus, as Medvedev bizarrely claimed, granted by the "international community" as a whole. Even if this reason was legal under international law and fell within the CIS mandate, the truth remains that Moscow has now forfeited its right to act as the sole protector of peace in South Ossetia, by attacking numerous Georgian civilian and military targets outside its mandated zone. It thus can no longer claim to be occupying the legal - or even moral - high ground in this conflict, for the abovementioned attacks are completely unlawful, even if one applies Medvedev's own war rethoric to them.
Also, Georgia has not attacked targets on sovereign Russian soil, so the Russian pretexts for attacking any target whatsoever in what is undisputed Georgian territory hold no water. Not even the unconfirmed Russian claims of Georgian "acts of aggression" against Russian peacekeepers and Ossetian civilians will justify this unnecessary escalation and provocative act from the Russian side. It is Moscow that has really taken this war to its opponent.
The first priority now is a ceasefire in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and an immediate halt to the Russian reinforcement of troops in both regions. The international community cannot allow Russia to annex states under false pretentions like the Great Powers did a hundred years ago in their 'territory trade' in the Balkans and the Caucasus. If Russia continues to execute attacks on Georgian territory (by which I mean those parts of Georgian territory that are being disputed by any state actor) and pursues its ground offensive into Georgia proper, it is legally, politically, ethically and diplomatically the aggressor in this war, and in that case the international community will have to use every means necessary to put an end to this conflict.
More commentary on the South Ossetian War will follow in the next few days.
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